Surging home insurance costs could force families to leave these 10 states | Fox Business
As actually existing perils are factored into insurance policies, including earthquake, wildfire, hurricane, etc risk and they are factored into future costs due to a changing climate (and additional air pollution risk cost for the homeowner/renter) I think real estate prices will drop in many places, even if interest rates do not. At the state level FL and Louisiana seem to be getting huge rate increases.
I assume eventually taxpayers will not want to underprice Nation Flood Insurance Program policies so that will be another factor as well. About $20 billion is already owed (due to underpriced risk cost) the NFIP is charging interest on their loans to existing customers, but not principal. We have seen in the past that interest only loans can lead to a poor outcome for real estate at the national level. Each policy, (which on average is underpriced for risk anyway) is currently paying interest each year on an over $4000 loan. By rights the policies should get a surcharge for past underpricing of say $400 a year to pay off the principal.
Congress needs to fund the costs of accurate maps for pricing risk as well. Congress currently is running a large insurance company in effect without paying for the costs of risk analysis. Of course, the NFIP could, if Congree authorizes it, put the cost burdens of risk management on to the policy holders, (or on counties that prefer to be in this nonprofit program) like all other insurance companies have to do to stay in business. To me it seems like Congress, and esp the Republicans are trying to get this nonprofit insurance company to fail by purposely using terrible management techniques. They also use poor business practices for other agencies as well, esp not funding the IRS, thus leaving cost multiples on 10 on the table for the upper crust to enjoy.
Stock pickers are always looking for “10 bangers.” That is pay $100, get back $1000. Peter Lynch wrote a who book on that called One Up on Wall Street. He ran the most successful Mutual Fund in the 1980s, Fidelity’s Magellan Fund. Many in government prefer to see many of it’s functions fail, and they use poor Mangement as a preferred tactic. The plutocrats do not like, as an example that the Social Security System run extremely efficiently on an overhead of about 1%. They would like to privatize it and get say 8% or even more. It is a big pot of money that can generate a healthy cash flow to the upper crust. Among other things they purposely underfund SS office help to purposefully make customer service line long. LS