Short answer
Yes, they could. Joel Millward-Hopkins argues in “Why the impacts of climate change may make us less likely to reduce emissions” (Global Sustainability, 2022) that indirect impacts of warming, such as wider inequality, more migration, and higher conflict risk, overlap with key drivers of authoritarian populism. That creates a possible socio-ecological feedback loop: warming fosters politics hostile to cutting emissions, so sociopolitical and earth system feedbacks push in the same direction. The paper calls this a warning, not a forecast.
Sociopolitical feedbacks and climate action
A Global Sustainability paper argues climate impacts may make societies less likely to cut emissions, which this post pairs with U.S. opinion splits on offshore drilling and personal harm beliefs.
Why it matters: physical feedbacks and political backlash can reinforce each other, slowing mitigation when it is most needed.
Read the Cambridge Core article and the opinion numbers in the note. Watch for damage-driven polarization that blocks policy even as awareness of warming rises.
We are currently divided 49% to 49% between those who want more offshore oil and gas in the USA and those who don’t with 2% undecided. Yes, a solid 72% think global warming is happening, but on 57% (and likely less) ascribe that to human intervention and 47% think climate change will harm them personally prior to death. Certainly not mandate to do anything. Meanwhile as inequality increases and oligarchs help create beneficial (to them) political dysfunctionality even greater stressors may turn even more away from supporting rational and empathetic policies to address the serious problems. Not to mention that the USA is not a democracy, but rather a civic (plutocratic) oligarchy that is moving in the direction of authoritarian type systems with fascist and theocratic underpinnings. This short paper makes much sense to me. A rational warning that as climate gets worse, sociopolitical system feedbacks along with earth system feedbacks will work in the same direction towards greater climate forcings. LS
Frequently asked questions
Could sociopolitical feedbacks amplify earth system climate feedbacks?
Yes, they could. A 2022 Global Sustainability paper by Joel Millward-Hopkins argues that the indirect impacts of warming overlap with key drivers of authoritarian populism. That creates a possible socio-ecological feedback loop in which warming fosters politics hostile to cutting emissions, so sociopolitical and earth system feedbacks push in the same direction.
Which climate impacts could feed this political feedback loop?
The paper points to indirect socioeconomic impacts of warming: widening inequality within and between countries, more migration, and a heightened risk of conflict, from violence and war to hate speech and crime. These overlap with factors behind the rise of nationalist, authoritarian populist politics.
Is this outcome inevitable?
No. The paper presents the scenario as a warning, not a forecast, and notes that direct experience of climate impacts may also raise support for mitigation. It argues for building public support for combined solutions to climate change and inequality to reduce political barriers to cutting emissions.